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Prediction for CME (2026-07-01T12:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-01T12:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47226/-1
CME Note: Very faint front to the NNW in SOHO LASCO C2 starting around 2026-07-01T12:12Z for a couple of frames before the start of a gap between downlink periods. The start time is somewhat ambiguous due to the faintness and overlap with an earlier feature to the N. This CME is also seen to the NNW in GOES CCOR-1. It is covered by real-time data gaps in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is most likely associated with an M1.0 class flare from AR 14479 (N13W33) that peaked at 2026-07-01T11:25Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131. The accompanying eruption including dimming, opening field lines, and an EUV wave is best seen in SDO AIA 193. Preliminarily closing as non-arrival; analysis is ongoing. | Arrival signature: Characterized by an increase in B_total from ~10nT to a peak B_total 24.5nT at 2026-07-04T00:28Z, on top of an enhancement from the previous interplanetary shock at 2026-07-03T11:17Z. B_z starts largely northward but sharply dips and sustains southward direction starting around 2026-07-03T00:36Z, reaching a peak -19nT at 2026-07-04T04:16Z. Solar wind speeds further jump from ~460 km/s to ~600 km/s, reaching a peak ~630 km/s around 2026-07-04T03:15Z prior to the subsequent CME arrival at 2026-07-04T12:00Z. Density increases from ~6.1p/cc to ~40.38p/cc by 2026-07-04T00:49Z. Temperature jumps from ~436k Kelvin to ~1.29M Kelvin by 2026-07-03T20:10Z. This second enhancement in the solar wind within the arrival signature starting at 2026-07-03T11:17Z is most likely attributed to the early arrival of CME: 2026-07-01T12:12Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-03T18:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-04T21:00Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: a5b1 -sa1
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqz

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 20260702 T03:23
Radial velocity (km/s): 449
Longitude (deg): 4
Latitude (deg): 34
Half-angular width (deg): 44

Notes:
First observed CME of three forming a combined partial impact.

Lead Time: 14.75 hour(s)
Difference: -26.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2026-07-03T04:00Z

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